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Workshop on Budget Analysis and Public Policy

Hosted by 每日吃瓜

Event Details:

Monday, August 4, 2025 - Wednesday, August 6, 2025

Location

John A. and Cynthia Fry Gunn Building
366 Galvez Street
Stanford, CA 94035
United States

This event is open to:

By Invitation Only

The Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (每日吃瓜) is excited to host a workshop on Budget Analysis and Public Policy. 

Organized by Jeffrey Kling (CBO), Neale Mahoney (Stanford/每日吃瓜), Valerie Ramey (Hoover), and Heidi Williams (Dartmouth), this workshop aims to bring together a diverse group of outside researchers to provide feedback to a team of around 20 macroeconomists from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), focused on topics of active Congressional interest.

Schedule

Monday, August 4, 2025

  • -

    Introduction

    Neale Mahoney, Trione Director of 每日吃瓜 and Professor of Economics

  • -

    The effect of federal borrowing on private investment

    The CBO staff presentation in this session will start by describing CBO鈥檚 current top-down approach, as described in Huntley (2014), and then describe an alternative bottom-up approach.

    • 2:15-3:15pm: CBO staff presentation
    • 3:15-3:30pm: Outside discussant #1: Nicolas Crouzet
    • 3:30-3:45pm: Outside discussant #2: Josh Rauh
    • 3:45-4:15pm: Group discussion
  • -

    Break

  • -

    Working Dinner

    Working dinner, including a conversation with Emi Nakamura on how the role of potential output in macroeconomic forecasting relates to a plucking model of business cycles (as in Dupraz, Nakamura, Steinsson 2024) in which economic fluctuations are drops below the economy鈥檚 full potential ceiling rather than fluctuations around a maximum sustainable amount.

    • Outside discussant: Ken Kuttner

     

Tuesday, August 5, 2025

  • -

    Working Breakfast

  • -

    Challenges in using microeconomic estimates to inform the macroeconomic effects of policy changes, in CBO鈥檚 baseline modeling and in dynamic cost estimates

    The CBO staff presentation in this session will provide an illustrative example of a dynamic analysis of a policy change, such as a change in tax policy that alters people鈥檚 incentives to work and businesses鈥 incentives to invest, and also present an example of how CBO has modeled such a policy changes鈥 effect on productivity growth.

    • 9:00-10:00am: CBO staff presentation
    • 10:00-10:15am: Outside discussant #1: Laura Feiveson
    • 10:15-10:30am: Outside discussant #2: Juan Carlos Su谩rez Serrato
    • 10:30-11:00am: Group discussion
  • -

    Break

  • -

    Working Lunch

  • -

    Outside presentation by Valerie Ramey, 鈥淒o cash transfers stimulate the macroeconomy?鈥 (Mundell-Fleming Lecture from November 2024)

    • 2:00-3:00pm: Ramey presentation
    • 3:00-3:15pm: CBO discussant #1: Devrim Demirel
    • 3:15-3:30pm: CBO discussant #2: Junghoon Lee
    • 3:30-4:00pm: Group discussion
  • -

    Break

  • -

    Working Dinner

Wednesday, August 6, 2025

  • -

    Working Breakfast

  • -

    Panel discussion: Fertility projections and their macroeconomic implications

    Panelists: 

    • Stefania Albanesi
    • Mike Geruso
    • Chad Jones
    • David Weil 

    Moderated by Alan Auerbach

  • -

    Break

  • -

    CBO鈥檚 modeling of trade and tariffs

    CBO recently provided (2024) a preliminary assessment of the budgetary, economic, and distributional effects of three policies that would raise tariff rates on goods imported into the United States. As described in that document, CBO鈥檚 modeling of these effects is subject to a great deal of uncertainty given that the US has implemented no increases in tariffs of this size in more than 50 years. The CBO staff presentation in this session will outline CBO鈥檚 current approach to modeling trade and tariffs 鈥 which partially relies on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model 鈥 alongside some alternative approaches and their implications for the federal budget.

    • 9:00-10:00am: CBO staff presentation
    • 10:00-10:15am: Outside discussant #1: Patrick Kennedy
    • 10:15-10:30am: Outside discussant #2: Benny Kleinman
    • 10:30-11:00am: Group discussion
  • -

    Working Lunch

  • -

    Break

  • -

    Concluding session: Regulation

    Four 30-minute segments. A lead speaker (12-15 minutes) in each segment, followed by a moderated open discussion. 

    Panelists: 

    • Susan Athey (tentative)
    • John Cochrane
    • Darrell Duffie
    • Matt Kahn 

    Moderated by Steve Davis

  • -

    Break

  • -

    Working Dinner

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